Italy vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 89.2%draw 2.0%8.8% SpainSpain 27.2%draw 2.0%70.8% ItalyItaly 81.1%draw 2.0%16.9% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 45 Italy, half of them between 5 Italy and 31 Italy, with the middle run at 16 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-12 on a tight afternoon and 39-23 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Italy 1827, Spain 1566 — 261 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy23–1–3Spain27 meetings, 1929 to 2002 · Italy by 14.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Italy by 27.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-09-22 | Spain 3–50 Italy | — | Campo de Pepe Rojo |
| 1999-08-26 | Italy 42–11 Spain | — | Stadio Tommaso Fattori |
| 1994-05-07 | Italy 62–15 Spain | — | Stadio XXV Aprile |
| 1993-06-21 | Italy 38–6 Spain | — | Stade Aime Giral(neutral) |
| 1993-02-14 | Spain 0–52 Italy | — | Ciudad Universitaria |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.