Italy vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 81.6%17.4% TongaTonga 23.9%75.1% ItalyItaly 78.4%20.6% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Tonga and 48 Italy, with the middle run at 16 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 40-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Tonga.
Italy 1367, Tonga 938 — 429 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy2–0–2Tonga4 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Italy by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-13 | Tonga 14–36 Italy | — | Nuku'alofa |
| 2016-11-26 | Italy 17–19 Tonga | — | Stadio Euganeo, Padova |
| 2003-10-15 | Tonga 12–36 Italy | Rugby World Cup | GIO Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-10 | Tonga 28–25 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.