Italy vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 92.5%draw 1.3%6.2% TongaTonga 17.8%draw 1.3%80.9% ItalyItaly 87.0%draw 1.3%11.7% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Italy and 45 Italy, half of them between 6 Italy and 31 Italy, with the middle run at 16 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 40-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Italy 1827, Tonga 1454 — 373 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy4–0–2Tonga6 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Italy by 15.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-13 | Tonga 14–36 Italy | — | Nuku'alofa |
| 2016-11-26 | Italy 17–19 Tonga | — | Stadio Euganeo, Padova |
| 2012-11-10 | Italy 28–23 Tonga | — | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| 2005-11-12 | Italy 48–0 Tonga | — | Stadio Lungobisenzio |
| 2003-10-15 | Tonga 12–36 Italy | Rugby World Cup | GIO Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.