Italy vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 90.7%draw 1.7%7.6% UruguayUruguay 23.1%draw 1.7%75.2% ItalyItaly 84.7%draw 1.7%13.6% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Italy and 44 Italy, half of them between 5 Italy and 30 Italy, with the middle run at 15 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-13 on a tight afternoon and 39-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Italy 1827, Uruguay 1520 — 307 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy5–0–0Uruguay5 meetings, 1999 to 2023 · Italy by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-20 | Italy 38–17 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 2021-11-20 | Italy 17–10 Uruguay | — | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2007-06-02 | Uruguay 5–29 Italy | — | Estadio Parque Central del Club Nacional |
| 2001-07-07 | Uruguay 3–14 Italy | — | Club Nacional de Futbol |
| 1999-08-22 | Italy 49–17 Uruguay | — | Stadio Tommaso Fattori |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.