Japan vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 4.4%94.6% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.0%4.0% JapanJapan 4.2%94.8% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours New Zealand.
Japan 1310, New Zealand 2045 — 735 points, favouring New Zealand
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan0–0–5New Zealand5 meetings, 1995 to 2024 · New Zealand by 58.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Japan 19–64 New Zealand | — | International Stadium Yokohama |
| 2022-10-29 | Japan 31–38 New Zealand | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2018-11-03 | Japan 31–69 New Zealand | — | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2011-09-16 | New Zealand 83–7 Japan | Rugby World Cup | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 1995-06-04 | New Zealand 145–17 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Toyota Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.