Japan vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 6.9%92.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.2%3.8% JapanJapan 5.2%93.8% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 51 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, half of them between 36 New Zealand and 6 New Zealand, with the middle run at 19 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-14 on a tight afternoon and 45-26 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Japan 1846, New Zealand 2476 — 630 points, favouring New Zealand
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan0–0–8New Zealand8 meetings, 1987 to 2024 · New Zealand by 64.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Japan 19–64 New Zealand | — | International Stadium Yokohama |
| 2022-10-29 | Japan 31–38 New Zealand | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2018-11-03 | Japan 31–69 New Zealand | — | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2013-11-02 | Japan 6–54 New Zealand | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2011-09-16 | New Zealand 83–7 Japan | Rugby World Cup | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.