Japan vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 86.0%draw 1.5%12.5% SamoaSamoa 24.4%draw 1.5%74.1% JapanJapan 80.3%draw 1.5%18.2% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Samoa and 43 Japan, half of them between 3 Japan and 29 Japan, with the middle run at 13 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Japan 1846, Samoa 1512 — 334 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan7–0–12Samoa19 meetings, 1990 to 2024 · Samoa by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Japan by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | Japan 49–27 Samoa | — | Tokyo |
| 2023-09-28 | Japan 28–22 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-07-22 | Japan 22–24 Samoa | — | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2019-10-05 | Japan 38–19 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-10-03 | Samoa 5–26 Japan | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.