Japan vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 77.0%draw 2.6%20.4% SamoaSamoa 36.3%draw 2.6%61.1% JapanJapan 69.1%draw 2.6%28.3% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Samoa and 39 Japan, with the middle run at 10 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Samoa.
Japan 1310, Samoa 1150 — 160 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan4–0–2Samoa6 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Japan by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | Japan 49–27 Samoa | — | Tokyo |
| 2023-09-28 | Japan 28–22 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-07-22 | Japan 22–24 Samoa | — | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2019-10-05 | Japan 38–19 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-10-03 | Samoa 5–26 Japan | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.