Japan vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 89.3%draw 1.7%9.0% USAUSA 23.3%draw 1.7%75.0% JapanJapan 83.5%draw 1.7%14.8% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Japan v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 45 Japan, half of them between 5 Japan and 31 Japan, with the middle run at 16 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 40-24 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps USA.
Japan 1846, USA 1537 — 309 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan13–1–13USA27 meetings, 1985 to 2026 · USA by 0.9 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Japan by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Japan 63–14 USA | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2025-09-06 | USA 21–47 Japan | — | Heart Health Park |
| 2024-09-07 | Japan 41–24 USA | — | Tokyo |
| 2019-08-10 | USA 20–34 Japan | — | ANZ Stadium(neutral) |
| 2015-10-11 | USA 18–28 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.