Japan vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Wales host Japan on Saturday 7 November at Principality Stadium, Cardiff, so Wales are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Japan 50.5%draw 3.0%46.5% WalesWales 70.2%draw 3.0%26.8% JapanJapan 38.5%draw 3.0%58.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Wales v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Wales wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Japan and 38 Wales, half of them between 1 Japan and 23 Wales, with the middle run at 8 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Wales are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Wales winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Wales, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Wales 1868, Japan 1846 — 22 points, favouring Wales
Wales are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan2–0–15Wales17 meetings, 1973 to 2025 · Wales by 32.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Wales by 22.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Wales 24–23 Japan | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-07-12 | Japan 22–31 Wales | — | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | Japan 24–19 Wales | — | Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu |
| 2016-11-19 | Wales 33–30 Japan | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2013-06-15 | Japan 23–8 Wales | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.