Japan vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 36.3%draw 2.8%60.9% WalesWales 74.2%draw 2.8%23.0% JapanJapan 29.4%draw 2.8%67.8% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Wales and 13 Japan, with the middle run at 2 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Wales.
Japan 1310, Wales 1425 — 115 points, favouring Wales
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–6Wales7 meetings, 1995 to 2025 · Wales by 22.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Wales 24–23 Japan | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-07-12 | Japan 22–31 Wales | — | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | Japan 24–19 Wales | — | Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu |
| 2016-11-19 | Wales 33–30 Japan | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2007-09-20 | Wales 72–18 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.