Japan vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 96.4%2.6% ZimbabweZimbabwe 7.8%91.2% JapanJapan 94.0%5.0% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Japan and 53 Japan, half of them between 8 Japan and 38 Japan, with the middle run at 20 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-13 on a tight afternoon and 44-24 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Japan 1846, Zimbabwe 1293 — 553 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 1991 to 1991 · Japan by 44.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-10-14 | Japan 52–8 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Affidea Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.