Japan vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 45.9%draw 2.2%51.9% ZimbabweZimbabwe 75.1%draw 2.3%22.6% JapanJapan 34.2%draw 2.2%63.6% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 30 Zimbabwe and 14 Japan, with the middle run at 1 Zimbabwe.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Zimbabwe.
Japan 1310, Zimbabwe 1529 — 218 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 1991 to 1991 · Japan by 44.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-10-14 | Japan 52–8 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Affidea Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.