La Rochelle vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 89.1%draw 2.5%8.4% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 22.2%draw 2.5%75.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 14 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
La Rochelle 1748, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 574 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Newcastle Falcons 18–26 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.