La Rochelle vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 89.9%draw 2.5%7.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 19.3%draw 2.5%78.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 La Rochelle and 41 La Rochelle, half of them between 5 La Rochelle and 27 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 15 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-15 on a tight afternoon and 42-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
La Rochelle 1820, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 780 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Newcastle Falcons 18–26 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.