La Rochelle vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% UlsterUlster 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% La RochelleLa Rochelle 54.3%draw 2.5%43.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Ulster and 33 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 7 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Ulster.
La Rochelle 1748, Ulster 1633 — 115 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle3–0–2Ulster5 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Ulster 41–24 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | La Rochelle 7–3 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2022-12-17 | Ulster 29–36 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-01-13 | Ulster 20–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2017-10-22 | La Rochelle 41–17 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.