La Rochelle vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% UlsterUlster 48.5%draw 2.5%49.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ulster and 32 La Rochelle, half of them between 1 La Rochelle and 20 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
La Rochelle 1820, Ulster 1582 — 238 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle3–0–2Ulster5 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Ulster 41–24 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | La Rochelle 7–3 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2022-12-17 | Ulster 29–36 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-01-13 | Ulster 20–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2017-10-22 | La Rochelle 41–17 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.