Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 86.5%draw 2.5%11.0% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 20.2%draw 2.5%77.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 38 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 4 Leicester Tigers and 24 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 12 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 760 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers19–0–3Newcastle Falcons22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 15.7 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Leicester Tigers by 20.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Newcastle Falcons 19–24 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2026-04-18 | Leicester Tigers 62–3 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-11-28 | Newcastle Falcons 17–39 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-05-31 | Leicester Tigers 42–20 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Newcastle Falcons 10–42 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.