Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 88.9%draw 2.5%8.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 19.5%draw 2.5%78.0% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 14 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 666 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers17–0–3Newcastle Falcons20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 15.9 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Leicester Tigers by 23.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Leicester Tigers 62–3 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-11-28 | Newcastle Falcons 17–39 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-10-05 | Newcastle Falcons 10–42 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-03-29 | Newcastle Falcons 13–19 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-03 | Leicester Tigers 47–3 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.