Leicester Tigers vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% OspreysOspreys 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 67.0%draw 2.5%30.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Ospreys and 30 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 2 Leicester Tigers and 19 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 9 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Ospreys 1567 — 233 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–1Ospreys2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Leicester Tigers 26–27 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2022-12-11 | Ospreys 17–23 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.