Leicester Tigers vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 69.3%draw 2.5%28.2% UlsterUlster 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 59.8%draw 2.5%37.7% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ulster and 32 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 7 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Ulster.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Ulster 1633 — 207 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leicester Tigers by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Leicester Tigers 38–10 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2021-04-30 | Leicester Tigers 33–24 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2019-01-19 | Leicester Tigers 13–14 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2018-10-13 | Ulster 24–10 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2015-01-24 | Ulster 26–7 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.