Leicester Tigers vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 73.1%draw 2.5%24.4% UlsterUlster 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 59.8%draw 2.5%37.7% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 28 Leicester Tigers, half of them between level and 16 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 7 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Ulster 1582 — 218 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leicester Tigers by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Leicester Tigers 38–10 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2021-04-30 | Leicester Tigers 33–24 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2019-01-19 | Leicester Tigers 13–14 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2018-10-13 | Ulster 24–10 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2015-01-24 | Ulster 26–7 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.