Leinster vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 82.9%draw 2.5%14.6% OspreysOspreys 35.7%draw 2.5%61.8% LeinsterLeinster 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 34 Leinster, half of them between 2 Leinster and 22 Leinster, with the middle run at 11 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-13 on a tight afternoon and 35-24 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Leinster 1915, Ospreys 1567 — 348 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster13–1–2Ospreys16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 16.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Leinster by 24.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Leinster 68–14 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-02-14 | Ospreys 19–22 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | Leinster 61–14 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2023-01-07 | Ospreys 19–24 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-02-19 | Leinster 29–7 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.