Leinster vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% UlsterUlster 42.0%draw 2.5%55.5% LeinsterLeinster 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ulster and 32 Leinster, half of them between 2 Leinster and 20 Leinster, with the middle run at 10 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-13 on a tight afternoon and 33-23 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Leinster 1915, Ulster 1582 — 333 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster21–0–8Ulster29 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Leinster by 9.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ulster 21–29 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-12-19 | Leinster 24–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Leinster 41–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-11-29 | Ulster 20–27 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Leinster 43–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 29. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.