Leinster vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% UlsterUlster 36.5%draw 2.5%61.0% LeinsterLeinster 67.4%draw 2.5%30.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ulster and 31 Leinster, with the middle run at 7 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Ulster.
Leinster 1912, Ulster 1633 — 279 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster19–0–7Ulster26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Leinster by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ulster 21–29 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-12-19 | Leinster 24–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Leinster 41–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-11-29 | Ulster 20–27 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Leinster 43–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.