Lions vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 83.0%draw 2.5%14.5% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 27.2%draw 2.5%70.3% LionsLions 76.8%draw 2.5%20.7% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Lions, with the middle run at 12 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Lions 1678, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 504 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–1Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Lions by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Newcastle Falcons 14–10 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-16 | Lions 35–13 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.