Lions vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 86.2%draw 2.5%11.3% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 24.1%draw 2.5%73.4% LionsLions 80.4%draw 2.5%17.1% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Lions, half of them between 4 Lions and 24 Lions, with the middle run at 12 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Lions 1664, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 624 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–1Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Lions by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Newcastle Falcons 14–10 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-16 | Lions 35–13 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.