Lions vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% OspreysOspreys 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% LionsLions 63.5%draw 2.5%34.0% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Ospreys and 31 Lions, with the middle run at 8 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Ospreys.
Lions 1678, Ospreys 1470 — 209 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions3–1–3Ospreys7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Ospreys by 1.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Ospreys 24–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-05-17 | Lions 29–28 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-12-08 | Ospreys 30–14 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-03-30 | Ospreys 36–21 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-01-21 | Lions 28–38 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.