Lions vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% OspreysOspreys 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% LionsLions 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ospreys and 24 Lions, half of them between 3 Ospreys and 14 Lions, with the middle run at 5 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-15 on a tight afternoon and 30-25 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Lions 1664, Ospreys 1567 — 97 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions4–1–3Ospreys8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Lions 35–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2026-01-23 | Ospreys 24–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-05-17 | Lions 29–28 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-12-08 | Ospreys 30–14 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-03-30 | Ospreys 36–21 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.