Lions vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% UlsterUlster 57.1%draw 2.5%40.4% LionsLions 51.7%draw 2.5%45.8% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Ulster and 21 Lions, half of them between 3 Ulster and 12 Lions, with the middle run at 4 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-15 on a tight afternoon and 30-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Lions 1664, Ulster 1582 — 82 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lions by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Lions 49–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Lions 35–22 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-11-17 | Ulster 24–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-10-15 | Lions 37–39 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2021-10-15 | Ulster 26–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.