Lions vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% UlsterUlster 49.9%draw 2.5%47.6% LionsLions 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 29 Lions, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Ulster.
Lions 1678, Ulster 1633 — 45 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lions by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Lions 49–31 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Lions 35–22 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-11-17 | Ulster 24–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-10-15 | Lions 37–39 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2021-10-15 | Ulster 26–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.