Lyon vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 86.7%draw 2.5%10.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% LyonLyon 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Lyon, half of them between 4 Lyon and 24 Lyon, with the middle run at 11 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Lyon 1487, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 447 points, favouring Lyon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–2Newcastle Falcons3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Lyon by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Lyon 14–23 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2016-12-18 | Newcastle Falcons 48–29 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2016-12-09 | Lyon 42–12 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.