Lyon vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% OspreysOspreys 65.0%draw 2.5%32.5% LyonLyon 45.1%draw 2.5%52.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ospreys and 21 Lyon, half of them between 6 Ospreys and 11 Lyon, with the middle run at 2 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Lyon 1487, Ospreys 1567 — 80 points, favouring Ospreys
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–2Ospreys3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Ospreys by 18.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Ospreys 18–20 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-01-15 | Ospreys 47–7 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2016-10-22 | Lyon 13–31 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.