Lyon vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% OspreysOspreys 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% LyonLyon 40.9%draw 2.5%56.6% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ospreys and 26 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Ospreys.
Lyon 1429, Ospreys 1470 — 41 points, favouring Ospreys
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–2Ospreys3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Ospreys by 18.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Ospreys 18–20 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-01-15 | Ospreys 47–7 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2016-10-22 | Lyon 13–31 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.