Montpellier Herault vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 90.1%draw 2.5%7.4% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 13.0%draw 2.5%84.5% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 87.6%draw 2.5%9.9% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Montpellier Herault and 40 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 5 Montpellier Herault and 27 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 14 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 932 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault3–0–1Newcastle Falcons4 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 14.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-17 | Newcastle Falcons 7–26 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-10 | Newcastle Falcons 19–24 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2019-01-12 | Montpellier Herault 45–8 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2018-10-21 | Newcastle Falcons 23–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.