Montpellier Herault vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 89.9%draw 2.5%7.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 18.6%draw 2.5%78.9% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 84.6%draw 2.5%12.9% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 15 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-14 on a tight afternoon and 41-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 707 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault3–0–1Newcastle Falcons4 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 14.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-17 | Newcastle Falcons 7–26 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-10 | Newcastle Falcons 19–24 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2019-01-12 | Montpellier Herault 45–8 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2018-10-21 | Newcastle Falcons 23–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.