Montpellier Herault vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% OspreysOspreys 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ospreys and 35 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 3 Montpellier Herault and 22 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Ospreys 1567 — 405 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault3–0–2Ospreys5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Ospreys 26–31 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-12-14 | Montpellier Herault 59–15 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-12-17 | Montpellier Herault 38–5 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | Ospreys 35–29 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-12-17 | Montpellier Herault 10–21 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.