Montpellier Herault vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% OspreysOspreys 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ospreys and 36 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Ospreys.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Ospreys 1470 — 412 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault3–0–2Ospreys5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Ospreys 26–31 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-12-14 | Montpellier Herault 59–15 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-12-17 | Montpellier Herault 38–5 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | Ospreys 35–29 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-12-17 | Montpellier Herault 10–21 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.