Montpellier Herault vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% UlsterUlster 45.7%draw 2.5%51.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ulster and 34 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 10 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Ulster.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Ulster 1633 — 248 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–1Ulster2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Montpellier Herault 59–26 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | San Mames |
| 2024-04-07 | Montpellier Herault 17–40 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.