Montpellier Herault vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% UlsterUlster 32.2%draw 2.5%65.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ulster and 35 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 3 Montpellier Herault and 22 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Ulster 1582 — 390 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–1Ulster2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Montpellier Herault 59–26 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | San Mames |
| 2024-04-07 | Montpellier Herault 17–40 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.