Munster vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% OspreysOspreys 43.2%draw 2.5%54.3% MunsterMunster 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Ospreys and 30 Munster, with the middle run at 7 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Ospreys.
Munster 1670, Ospreys 1470 — 201 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster18–0–3Ospreys21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 14.5 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Ospreys 10–26 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-10-05 | Munster 23–0 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2024-06-07 | Munster 23–7 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-03-22 | Ospreys 17–27 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-02-17 | Munster 58–3 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.