Munster vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% OspreysOspreys 52.9%draw 2.5%44.6% MunsterMunster 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ospreys and 29 Munster, half of them between 1 Munster and 18 Munster, with the middle run at 8 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 32-24 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Munster 1728, Ospreys 1567 — 161 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster18–0–3Ospreys21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 14.5 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Munster by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Ospreys 10–26 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-10-05 | Munster 23–0 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2024-06-07 | Munster 23–7 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-03-22 | Ospreys 17–27 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-02-17 | Munster 58–3 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.