Munster vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% UlsterUlster 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% MunsterMunster 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Ulster and 20 Munster, with the middle run at 2 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Ulster.
Munster 1670, Ulster 1633 — 37 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster13–2–8Ulster23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Munster by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Munster 41–14 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2026-01-02 | Ulster 28–3 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | Munster 38–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-12-20 | Ulster 19–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Munster 29–24 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.