Munster vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 70.2%draw 2.5%27.3% UlsterUlster 55.8%draw 2.5%41.7% MunsterMunster 56.4%draw 2.5%41.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 28 Munster, half of them between 1 Ulster and 16 Munster, with the middle run at 6 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-15 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Munster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Munster 1728, Ulster 1582 — 146 points, favouring Munster
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster13–3–8Ulster24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 1.9 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Munster by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Ulster 26–26 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2026-04-25 | Munster 41–14 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2026-01-02 | Ulster 28–3 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | Munster 38–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-12-20 | Ulster 19–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.