Namibia vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Namibia 3.7%95.3% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.2%3.8% NamibiaNamibia 3.7%95.3% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 53 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Namibia, negative favours New Zealand.
Namibia 930, New Zealand 2045 — 1115 points, favouring New Zealand
Namibia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–3New Zealand3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · New Zealand by 58.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-15 | New Zealand 71–3 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2019-10-06 | New Zealand 71–9 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2015-09-24 | New Zealand 58–14 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | London Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.