Namibia vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 3.3%95.7% New ZealandNew Zealand 97.5%1.5% NamibiaNamibia 2.4%96.6% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 57 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, half of them between 40 New Zealand and 8 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 43 and 96 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-16 on a tight afternoon and 52-31 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Namibia 1240, New Zealand 2476 — 1237 points, favouring New Zealand
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–3New Zealand3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · New Zealand by 58.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-15 | New Zealand 71–3 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2019-10-06 | New Zealand 71–9 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2015-09-24 | New Zealand 58–14 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | London Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.