Namibia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 26.9%draw 1.9%71.2% SamoaSamoa 88.8%draw 1.9%9.3% NamibiaNamibia 17.1%draw 1.9%81.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Samoa and 13 Namibia, half of them between 21 Samoa and 1 Namibia, with the middle run at 7 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Namibia 1240, Samoa 1512 — 272 points, favouring Samoa
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–3Samoa3 meetings, 2003 to 2025 · Samoa by 27.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | Samoa 26–8 Namibia | — | The Sevens 2(neutral) |
| 2011-09-14 | Samoa 49–12 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Rotorua International Stadium(neutral) |
| 2003-07-12 | Namibia 13–40 Samoa | — | Hage Geingob Rugby Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.