Namibia vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 7.2%91.8% WalesWales 96.2%2.8% NamibiaNamibia 4.8%94.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 50 Wales and 1 Wales, half of them between 35 Wales and 6 Wales, with the middle run at 18 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-14 on a tight afternoon and 44-26 on an open one.
Why Namibia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Namibia 1240, Wales 1868 — 629 points, favouring Wales
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia0–0–4Wales4 meetings, 1990 to 2011 · Wales by 25.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-26 | Wales 81–7 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stadium Taranaki(neutral) |
| 1993-06-05 | Namibia 23–38 Wales | — | National Stadium |
| 1990-06-09 | Namibia 30–34 Wales | — | National Stadium |
| 1990-06-02 | Namibia 9–18 Wales | — | National Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.