Namibia vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Namibia 62.4%draw 3.0%34.6% ZimbabweZimbabwe 57.5%draw 2.9%39.6% NamibiaNamibia 51.4%draw 3.0%45.6% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Namibia v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Namibia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Zimbabwe and 34 Namibia, half of them between 3 Zimbabwe and 19 Namibia, with the middle run at 5 Namibia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Namibia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Namibia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Namibia, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Namibia 1240, Zimbabwe 1293 — 53 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Namibia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Namibia31–0–5Zimbabwe36 meetings, 1990 to 2025 · Namibia by 15.4 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Namibia by 18.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Namibia 28–30 Zimbabwe | — | Mandela National Stadium(neutral) |
| 2024-07-24 | Zimbabwe 32–10 Namibia | — | Mutesa II Stadium |
| 2022-07-06 | Namibia 34–19 Zimbabwe | — | Stade Maurice David(neutral) |
| 2021-11-20 | Zimbabwe 10–41 Namibia | — | Markötter Stadium(neutral) |
| 2018-08-04 | Zimbabwe 28–58 Namibia | — | Hartsfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 36. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.