New Zealand vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 97.2%1.8% PortugalPortugal 5.1%93.9% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.6%3.4% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New Zealand and 53 New Zealand, half of them between 9 New Zealand and 39 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 87 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
New Zealand 2476, Portugal 1638 — 838 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand1–0–0Portugal1 meeting, 2007 to 2007 · New Zealand by 95.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-09-15 | New Zealand 108–13 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.