New Zealand vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland host New Zealand on Saturday 7 November at Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh, so Scotland are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
New Zealand 90.5%draw 1.9%7.6% ScotlandScotland 25.0%draw 1.8%73.2% New ZealandNew Zealand 83.2%draw 1.8%15.0% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 New Zealand and 14 Scotland, half of them between 18 New Zealand and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 6 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Scotland are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Scotland 2193, New Zealand 2476 — 284 points, favouring New Zealand
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand31–2–1Scotland34 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 17.2 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · New Zealand by 22.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Scotland 17–25 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-11-13 | Scotland 23–31 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-11-18 | Scotland 17–22 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2014-11-15 | Scotland 16–24 New Zealand | — | Edinburgh |
| 2012-11-11 | Scotland 22–51 New Zealand | — | Edinburgh |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 34. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.