New Zealand vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 81.4%draw 1.6%17.0% ScotlandScotland 22.4%draw 1.6%76.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 78.7%draw 1.7%19.6% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Scotland and 44 New Zealand, with the middle run at 14 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-23 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Scotland.
New Zealand 2045, Scotland 1730 — 315 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand31–2–0Scotland33 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 17.8 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · New Zealand by 22.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Scotland 17–25 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-11-13 | Scotland 23–31 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-11-18 | Scotland 17–22 New Zealand | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2014-11-15 | Scotland 16–24 New Zealand | — | Edinburgh |
| 2012-11-11 | Scotland 22–51 New Zealand | — | Edinburgh |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 33. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.