New Zealand vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 98.0%1.0% TongaTonga 3.0%96.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 97.0%2.0% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New Zealand and 55 New Zealand, half of them between 8 New Zealand and 38 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 92 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
New Zealand 2476, Tonga 1454 — 1022 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand7–0–0Tonga7 meetings, 1999 to 2021 · New Zealand by 68.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-03 | New Zealand 102–0 Tonga | — | Go Media Stadium |
| 2019-09-07 | New Zealand 92–7 Tonga | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2015-10-09 | New Zealand 47–9 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | St James' Park(neutral) |
| 2011-09-09 | New Zealand 41–10 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Eden Park |
| 2003-10-24 | New Zealand 91–7 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.