New Zealand vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 95.3%3.7% TongaTonga 5.0%94.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 94.7%4.3% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 New Zealand and 52 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Tonga.
New Zealand 2045, Tonga 938 — 1108 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand6–0–0Tonga6 meetings, 1999 to 2021 · New Zealand by 62.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-03 | New Zealand 102–0 Tonga | — | Go Media Stadium |
| 2019-09-07 | New Zealand 92–7 Tonga | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2015-10-09 | New Zealand 47–9 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | St James' Park(neutral) |
| 2011-09-09 | New Zealand 41–10 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Eden Park |
| 2003-10-24 | New Zealand 91–7 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.