Newcastle Falcons vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 17.2%draw 2.5%80.3% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 87.5%draw 2.5%10.0% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 13.8%draw 2.5%83.7% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Northampton Saints and 1 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 11 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-28 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Northampton Saints 1918 — 744 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons7–0–13Northampton Saints20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 12.8 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Northampton Saints by 24.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Northampton Saints 28–27 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-10-17 | Newcastle Falcons 19–36 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-04-18 | Newcastle Falcons 34–35 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-12-28 | Northampton Saints 61–0 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-01-27 | Northampton Saints 38–13 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.