Newcastle Falcons vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 15.7%draw 2.5%81.8% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 87.7%draw 2.5%9.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 11.8%draw 2.5%85.7% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Northampton Saints and 1 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 24 Northampton Saints and 2 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 12 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-16 on a tight afternoon and 40-28 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Northampton Saints 1957 — 917 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons7–0–14Northampton Saints21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 13.7 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Northampton Saints by 24.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Northampton Saints 59–26 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-03-21 | Northampton Saints 28–27 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-10-17 | Newcastle Falcons 19–36 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-04-18 | Newcastle Falcons 34–35 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-12-28 | Northampton Saints 61–0 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.