Newcastle Falcons vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 19.5%draw 2.5%78.0% PauPau 86.6%draw 2.5%10.9% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 13.9%draw 2.5%83.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Pau and 5 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 20 Pau and 1 Pau, with the middle run at 9 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 38-29 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Pau 1818 — 778 points, favouring Pau
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons0–0–1Pau1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Pau by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | Pau 32–19 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.