Newcastle Falcons vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 39.2%draw 2.5%58.3% PerpignanPerpignan 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 26.0%draw 2.5%71.5% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Perpignan and 14 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 12 Perpignan and 5 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 3 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Perpignan 1424 — 384 points, favouring Perpignan
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons2–0–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Newcastle Falcons by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle Falcons 26–19 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2024-01-21 | Perpignan 23–32 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.