Newcastle Falcons vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 45.1%draw 2.5%52.4% PerpignanNewcastle Falcons 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Perpignan and 14 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 1 Perpignan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Perpignan.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Perpignan 1346 — 172 points, favouring Perpignan
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons2–0–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Newcastle Falcons by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle Falcons 26–19 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2024-01-21 | Perpignan 23–32 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.