Newcastle Falcons vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons host Sale Sharks on Friday 23 October at Kingston Park, Newcastle, so Newcastle Falcons are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Newcastle Falcons 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 87.6%draw 2.5%9.9% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 21.1%draw 2.5%76.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Sale Sharks and 10 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 16 Sale Sharks and 3 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 5 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Sale Sharks 1504 — 464 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons7–1–11Sale Sharks19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 9.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Sale Sharks by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Newcastle Falcons 45–42 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-10 | Sale Sharks 57–5 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-03-21 | Newcastle Falcons 15–39 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-10-11 | Sale Sharks 43–10 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-04-28 | Newcastle Falcons 14–35 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.