Newcastle Falcons vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Sale SharksSale Sharks 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 26.8%draw 2.5%70.7% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Sale Sharks and 14 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 4 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Sale Sharks 1558 — 384 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons7–1–11Sale Sharks19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 9.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Sale Sharks by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Newcastle Falcons 45–42 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-10 | Sale Sharks 57–5 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-03-21 | Newcastle Falcons 15–39 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-10-11 | Sale Sharks 43–10 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-04-28 | Newcastle Falcons 14–35 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.