Newcastle Falcons vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Saracens host Newcastle Falcons on Saturday 31 October at StoneX Stadium, London, so Saracens are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Newcastle Falcons 18.2%draw 2.5%79.3% SaracensSaracens 88.3%draw 2.5%9.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 13.1%draw 2.5%84.4% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Saracens v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Saracens, half of them between 5 Saracens and 26 Saracens, with the middle run at 14 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Saracens winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Saracens, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Saracens 1861, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 821 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–17Saracens18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 20.6 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Saracens by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Saracens 73–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-09-26 | Newcastle Falcons 17–39 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-05-10 | Saracens 75–28 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-11-29 | Newcastle Falcons 17–12 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-30 | Saracens 37–19 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.