Newcastle Falcons vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 19.2%draw 2.5%78.3% SaracensSaracens 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 14.4%draw 2.5%83.1% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 Saracens and 4 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 10 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Saracens.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Saracens 1802 — 628 points, favouring Saracens
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–17Saracens18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 20.6 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Saracens by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Saracens 73–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-09-26 | Newcastle Falcons 17–39 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-05-10 | Saracens 75–28 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-11-29 | Newcastle Falcons 17–12 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2023-12-30 | Saracens 37–19 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.