Newcastle Falcons vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% ScarletsScarlets 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 28.1%draw 2.5%69.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Scarlets and 13 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 12 Scarlets and 5 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 2 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Scarlets 1273 — 233 points, favouring Scarlets
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons0–0–1Scarlets1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Scarlets by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Scarlets 47–14 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.