Newcastle Falcons vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 24.5%draw 2.5%73.0% ToulonToulon 89.4%draw 2.5%8.1% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 15.7%draw 2.5%81.8% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 Toulon and 8 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 18 Toulon and level, with the middle run at 8 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-18 on a tight afternoon and 37-29 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Toulon 1663 — 623 points, favouring Toulon
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–1Toulon2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Toulon by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-18 | Newcastle Falcons 24–27 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2018-10-14 | Toulon 25–26 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.