Newcastle Falcons vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 39.2%draw 2.5%58.3% ToulonToulon 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 31.5%draw 2.5%66.0% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Toulon and 12 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 3 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Toulon.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Toulon 1435 — 260 points, favouring Toulon
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–1Toulon2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Toulon by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-18 | Newcastle Falcons 24–27 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2018-10-14 | Toulon 25–26 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.