Newcastle Falcons vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 66.4%draw 2.5%31.1% ZebreZebre 68.8%draw 2.5%28.7% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 47.5%draw 2.5%50.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Zebre and 22 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 3 Zebre and 12 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 4 Newcastle Falcons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Zebre 1071 — 31 points, favouring Zebre
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–0Zebre1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Newcastle Falcons by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Newcastle Falcons 25–22 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.