Northampton Saints vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% OspreysOspreys 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 35 Northampton Saints, half of them between 2 Northampton Saints and 22 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 10 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Northampton Saints 1957, Ospreys 1567 — 390 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Northampton Saints1–0–2Ospreys3 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Ospreys by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-17 | Ospreys 32–15 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-12-09 | Northampton Saints 32–43 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-01-18 | Ospreys 9–20 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.