Ospreys vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 48.0%draw 2.5%49.5% PauPau 78.3%draw 2.5%19.2% OspreysOspreys 32.9%draw 2.5%64.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Pau and 15 Ospreys, half of them between 10 Pau and 7 Ospreys, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Ospreys 1567, Pau 1818 — 251 points, favouring Pau
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Pau are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Ospreys are on 48.0%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Ospreys2–0–1Pau3 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Ospreys by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Pau 28–31 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2019-01-19 | Pau 26–21 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2018-10-13 | Ospreys 27–0 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.