Ospreys vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% PauPau 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% OspreysOspreys 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Pau and 24 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Pau.
Ospreys 1470, Pau 1640 — 170 points, favouring Pau
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys2–0–1Pau3 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Ospreys by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Pau 28–31 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2019-01-19 | Pau 26–21 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2018-10-13 | Ospreys 27–0 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.