Ospreys vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% PerpignanPerpignan 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% OspreysOspreys 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Perpignan and 28 Ospreys, half of them between 2 Perpignan and 16 Ospreys, with the middle run at 6 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Ospreys 1567, Perpignan 1424 — 144 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys1–0–0Perpignan1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Ospreys by 22.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Ospreys 25–3 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.