Ospreys vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% Racing 92Racing 92 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% OspreysOspreys 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Racing 92 and 19 Ospreys, half of them between 6 Racing 92 and 10 Ospreys, with the middle run at 2 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Ospreys 1567, Racing 92 1632 — 65 points, favouring Racing 92
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys0–0–3Racing 923 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · Racing 92 by 16.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Ospreys 10–25 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2019-12-13 | Racing 92 40–27 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2019-12-07 | Ospreys 19–40 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.