Ospreys vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Racing 92Racing 92 75.2%draw 2.5%22.3% OspreysOspreys 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Racing 92 and 16 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Racing 92.
Ospreys 1470, Racing 92 1707 — 238 points, favouring Racing 92
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys0–0–3Racing 923 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · Racing 92 by 16.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Ospreys 10–25 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2019-12-13 | Racing 92 40–27 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2019-12-07 | Ospreys 19–40 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.