Ospreys vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% Sale SharksSale Sharks 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% OspreysOspreys 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Sale Sharks and 22 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Ospreys 1470, Sale Sharks 1558 — 89 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys1–0–2Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2021 to 2024 · Sale Sharks by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Ospreys 23–15 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2022-01-23 | Sale Sharks 49–10 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2021-12-12 | Ospreys 13–21 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.