Ospreys vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 38.5%draw 2.5%59.0% SaracensSaracens 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% OspreysOspreys 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Saracens and 13 Ospreys, with the middle run at 2 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Saracens.
Ospreys 1470, Saracens 1802 — 332 points, favouring Saracens
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys0–1–4Saracens5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Saracens by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Saracens 35–20 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2020-01-11 | Ospreys 15–22 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2019-11-23 | Saracens 44–3 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2018-01-13 | Ospreys 15–15 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-10-21 | Saracens 36–34 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.