Ospreys vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% SaracensSaracens 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% OspreysOspreys 29.0%draw 2.5%68.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Saracens and 14 Ospreys, half of them between 11 Saracens and 6 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Ospreys 1567, Saracens 1861 — 294 points, favouring Saracens
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys0–1–4Saracens5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Saracens by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Saracens 35–20 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2020-01-11 | Ospreys 15–22 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2019-11-23 | Saracens 44–3 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2018-01-13 | Ospreys 15–15 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-10-21 | Saracens 36–34 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.