Ospreys vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 76.8%draw 2.5%20.7% ScarletsScarlets 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% OspreysOspreys 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Scarlets and 27 Ospreys, half of them between 1 Ospreys and 16 Ospreys, with the middle run at 7 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Ospreys 1567, Scarlets 1273 — 294 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys12–1–10Scarlets23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 1.0 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · Ospreys by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Ospreys 27–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-12-26 | Scarlets 19–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-04-06 | Ospreys 36–14 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2025-03-29 | Scarlets 38–22 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-12-21 | Ospreys 23–22 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.