Ospreys vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% ScarletsScarlets 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% OspreysOspreys 58.6%draw 2.5%38.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Scarlets and 25 Ospreys, with the middle run at 5 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Scarlets.
Ospreys 1470, Scarlets 1334 — 135 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys10–2–10Scarlets22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 0.2 on average
Last 10: 7–1–2 · Ospreys by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Ospreys 27–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-12-26 | Scarlets 19–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-04-06 | Ospreys 36–14 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2025-03-29 | Scarlets 38–22 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-12-21 | Ospreys 23–22 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.