Ospreys vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 46.7%draw 2.5%50.8% SharksSharks 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% OspreysOspreys 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Sharks and 16 Ospreys, half of them between 9 Sharks and 7 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Ospreys 1567, Sharks 1746 — 179 points, favouring Sharks
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys2–0–4Sharks6 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Sharks by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Sharks 41–24 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2026-04-18 | Ospreys 21–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-05-09 | Sharks 29–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-11-03 | Ospreys 19–5 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2022-12-02 | Sharks 25–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.