Ospreys vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 42.2%draw 2.5%55.3% SharksSharks 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% OspreysOspreys 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Sharks and 14 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Sharks.
Ospreys 1470, Sharks 1613 — 143 points, favouring Sharks
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys2–0–3Sharks5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Sharks by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Ospreys 21–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-05-09 | Sharks 29–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-11-03 | Ospreys 19–5 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2022-12-02 | Sharks 25–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2021-10-08 | Ospreys 13–27 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.