Ospreys vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% OspreysOspreys 34.7%draw 2.5%62.8% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Francais Paris and 18 Ospreys, half of them between 7 Stade Francais Paris and 9 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Ospreys 1567, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 164 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys1–0–2Stade Francais Paris3 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Ospreys by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-14 | Stade Francais Paris 12–3 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2018-12-08 | Ospreys 51–20 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-04-02 | Ospreys 21–25 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Principality Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.