Ospreys vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 40.9%draw 2.5%56.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 78.3%draw 2.5%19.2% OspreysOspreys 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Ospreys 1470, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 306 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys1–0–2Stade Francais Paris3 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Ospreys by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-14 | Stade Francais Paris 12–3 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2018-12-08 | Ospreys 51–20 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-04-02 | Ospreys 21–25 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Principality Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.