Ospreys vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% StormersStormers 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% OspreysOspreys 26.0%draw 2.5%71.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stormers and 14 Ospreys, half of them between 12 Stormers and 5 Ospreys, with the middle run at 3 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Ospreys 1567, Stormers 1845 — 278 points, favouring Stormers
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys2–1–2Stormers5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-03 | Stormers 26–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Ospreys 37–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-04-20 | Stormers 21–27 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-10-14 | Ospreys 16–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-04-02 | Stormers 29–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.