Ospreys vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% StormersStormers 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% OspreysOspreys 33.3%draw 2.5%64.2% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Stormers and 15 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Stormers.
Ospreys 1470, Stormers 1716 — 246 points, favouring Stormers
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys2–1–2Stormers5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-03 | Stormers 26–10 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Ospreys 37–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-04-20 | Stormers 21–27 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-10-14 | Ospreys 16–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-04-02 | Stormers 29–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.